Matchday Briefing
What we think will happen in every match today, with how sure we are — and how often we have been right.
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Today's matches
1 match
Serie A1 match
Liga Profesional Argentina1 match
Liga MX1 match
1 match
3 matches
2. Bundesliga
7 matches
- FTWest Brom1–1QPRChampionshipv2 notesexpect 1–0 (1.5–0.9 goals)Yes52% likely · pays 1.67
- FTDerby1–2BirminghamChampionshipv3 notesexpect 1–0 (1.3–1.0 goals)Yes52% likely · pays 1.80Both sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTBolton1–0CardiffChampionshipv4 notesexpect 1–0 (1.7–0.8 goals)Yes51% likely · pays 1.45Both sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTCrawley Town1–3CheltenhamLeague Twovnot checked for this forecast
- FTGrimsby2–0Bristol RoversLeague Twovnot checked for this forecast
- FTLeyton Orient2–3WycombeLeague Onevnot checked for this forecast
- FTNotts County0–1BradfordLeague Onevnot checked for this forecast
Championship
League Two
League One
4 matches
- FTRacing Santander2–1AlavesLa Ligav2 notesexpect 1–0 (1.4–1.0 goals)Yes53% likely · pays 1.62Both sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTFC Andorra1–3Real Sociedad IISegunda Divisiónvnot checked for this forecast
- FTGuingamp2–1AnnecyLigue 2vnot checked for this forecast
- FTSochaux1–0NantesLigue 2vnot checked for this forecast
La Liga
Segunda División
Ligue 2
1 match
Ekstraklasa5 matches
- FTGenoa1–1FrosinoneSerie Av1 noteexpect 2–1 (1.5–1.1 goals)Yes54% likely · pays 1.70
- FTVicenza Virtus1–1Juve StabiaSerie Bvnot checked for this forecast
- FTPadova1–0AscoliSerie Bvnot checked for this forecast
- FTSudtirol1–1ModenaSerie Bvnot checked for this forecast
- FTAIK Stockholm1–4Vasteras SK FKAllsvenskanvnot checked for this forecast
Serie A
Serie B
Allsvenskan5 matches
- FTSC Freiburg5–0Borussia MönchengladbachBundesligavexpect 2–1 (1.7–1.2 goals)Yes57% likely · pays 1.57Both sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FT1899 Hoffenheim2–1VfB StuttgartBundesligavexpect 2–1 (1.8–1.8 goals)Yes63% likely · pays 1.33Both sides scored in 8 of the last 10.
- FTFC Augsburg2–2Bayer LeverkusenBundesligavexpect 1–2 (1.2–2.0 goals)Yes59% likely · pays 1.40Both sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
- FTFSV Mainz 051–3Eintracht FrankfurtBundesligav1 noteexpect 2–1 (1.6–1.4 goals)Yes58% likely · pays 1.47Both sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
- FTBorussia Dortmund3–0SC Paderborn 07Bundesligav3 notesexpect 1–0 (1.5–0.7 goals)No53% likely · pays 2.20Both sides scored in 3 of the last 10.
Bundesliga
42 matches
- FTBournemouth2–2BrentfordPremier Leaguev1 noteexpect 2–1 (1.8–1.4 goals)Yes60% likely · pays 1.50Both sides scored in 9 of the last 10.
- FTLiverpool0–0FulhamPremier Leaguev1 noteexpect 2–1 (1.9–1.1 goals)Yes56% likely · pays 1.57Both sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
- FTChelsea2–2Hull CityPremier Leaguev1 noteexpect 2–1 (2.9–0.8 goals)Yes54% likely · pays 1.91Both sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
- FTCrystal Palace2–3IpswichPremier Leaguev2 notesexpect 2–1 (2.0–1.0 goals)Yes56% likely · pays 1.70Both sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
- FTMiddlesbrough4–3NorwichChampionshipv2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.8–1.0 goals)Yes55% likely · pays 1.53Both sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
- FTCharlton0–0PortsmouthChampionshipv2 notesexpect 1–0 (1.2–1.1 goals)Yes52% likely · pays 1.90
- FTSwansea3–1BurnleyChampionshipv3 notesexpect 1–2 (1.2–1.3 goals)Yes54% likely · pays 1.73Both sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTSK Beveren2–0St. TruidenJupiler Pro Leaguev3 notesexpect 1–2 (1.1–1.5 goals)Yes54% likely · pays 1.50
- FTAston Villa1–2Nottingham ForestPremier Leaguev1 noteexpect 2–1 (1.6–1.2 goals)Yes56% likely · pays 1.75
- FTEyüpspor0–2RizesporSüper Ligv1 notenot checked for this forecast
- FTSamsunspor1–5Çorum FKSüper Ligv1 notenot checked for this forecast
- FTWatford1–2Stoke CityChampionshipv2 notesexpect 1–0 (1.4–1.0 goals)Yes53% likely · pays 1.73Both sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTSouthampton4–1Bristol CityChampionshipv2 notesexpect 2–1 (2.0–1.0 goals)Yes56% likely · pays 1.62Both sides scored in 10 of the last 10.
- FTBlackburn3–1MillwallChampionshipv2 notesexpect 1–0 (1.2–1.1 goals)Yes51% likely · pays 1.70
- FTPreston0–1LincolnChampionshipv4 notesexpect 0–1 (1.1–1.3 goals)Yes53% likely · pays 1.68Both sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
- FTLillestrom2–0ValerengaEliteserienvnot checked for this forecast
- FTBoluspor1–1Pendikspor1. Ligvnot checked for this forecast
- FTVanspor FK1–1Keçiörengücü1. Ligvnot checked for this forecast
- FTBarnet2–1Accrington STLeague Twovnot checked for this forecast
- FTColchester1–1CreweLeague Twovnot checked for this forecast
- FTGillingham2–0TranmereLeague Twovnot checked for this forecast
- FTNewport County1–1Fleetwood TownLeague Twovnot checked for this forecast
- FTOldham1–2ChesterfieldLeague Twovnot checked for this forecast
- FTPort Vale1–0Exeter CityLeague Twovnot checked for this forecast
- FTRotherham3–3Salford CityLeague Twovnot checked for this forecast
- FTShrewsbury2–0NorthamptonLeague Twovnot checked for this forecast
- FTWalsall0–0RochdaleLeague Twovnot checked for this forecast
- FTYork4–0Swindon TownLeague Twovnot checked for this forecast
- FTAFC Wimbledon1–0DoncasterLeague Onevnot checked for this forecast
- FTBlackpool2–2BromleyLeague Onevnot checked for this forecast
- FTCambridge United2–1ReadingLeague Onevnot checked for this forecast
- FTMansfield Town0–0HuddersfieldLeague Onevnot checked for this forecast
- FTMilton Keynes Dons1–1PeterboroughLeague Onevnot checked for this forecast
- FTOxford United3–0Burton AlbionLeague Onevnot checked for this forecast
- FTPlymouth3–0BarnsleyLeague Onevnot checked for this forecast
- FTSheffield Wednesday0–0WiganLeague Onevnot checked for this forecast
- FTStockport County3–4LeicesterLeague Onevnot checked for this forecast
- FTAyr Utd1–3Inverness CTChampionshipvnot checked for this forecast
- FTDunfermline2–0Queen's ParkChampionshipvnot checked for this forecast
- FTRaith Rovers4–0ArbroathChampionshipvnot checked for this forecast
- FTRSC Anderlecht II2–6Lokeren-TemseChallenger Pro Leaguevnot checked for this forecast
- FTSeraing United1–2Sporting HasseltChallenger Pro Leaguevnot checked for this forecast
Premier League
Jupiler Pro League
Süper Lig
Eliteserien
1. Lig
Championship
Challenger Pro League
2 matches
3 matches
- FTNacional1–3AlvercaPrimeira Ligav1 noteexpect 1–0 (1.3–1.2 goals)Yes53% likely · pays 1.80Both sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTTwente2–0ADO Den HaagEredivisiev3 notesexpect 2–1 (2.7–0.7 goals)Yes51% likely · pays 1.73Both sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
- FTRoda1–0VitesseEerste Divisievnot checked for this forecast
Primeira Liga
Eredivisie
Eerste Divisie1 match
Bundesliga2 matches
Ligue 1
2 matches
1 match
Pro League5 matches
- FTLazio2–2AC MilanSerie Avexpect 1–2 (1.3–1.4 goals)Yes55% likely · pays 2.00Both sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTRosenborg5–3TromsoEliteserienvnot checked for this forecast
- FTFC ST. Gallen0–3FC SionSuper Leaguevnot checked for this forecast
- FTFC Thun0–1GrasshoppersSuper Leaguevnot checked for this forecast
- FTOlympiakos Piraeus0–1OFISuper League 1vnot checked for this forecast
Super League
Super League 11 match
5 matches
- FT1. FC Köln1–1Werder BremenBundesligavexpect 2–1 (1.7–1.3 goals)Yes57% likely · pays 1.50Both sides scored in 8 of the last 10.
- FTTottenham0–0EvertonPremier Leaguev1 noteexpect 2–1 (1.4–1.2 goals)Yes55% likely · pays 1.62
- FTAthletic Club1–1ElcheLa Ligav1 noteexpect 2–1 (1.7–0.8 goals)Yes52% likely · pays 1.95Both sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTGirona1–2CastellónSegunda Divisiónvnot checked for this forecast
- FTGranada CF1–1AlbaceteSegunda Divisiónvnot checked for this forecast
1 match
6 matches
- FTAlanyaspor2–2GöztepeSüper Ligv1 notenot checked for this forecast
- FTCasa Pia1–4FC PortoPrimeira Ligav2 notesexpect 0–3 (0.6–1.9 goals)No52% likely · pays 1.57Both sides scored in 1 of the last 10.
- FTKonyaspor1–0TrabzonsporSüper Ligv1 notenot checked for this forecast
- FTFC Lugano2–2BSC Young BoysSuper Leaguevnot checked for this forecast
- FTBodrum FK4–0Batman Petrolspor1. Ligvnot checked for this forecast
- FTÜmraniyespor1–2Antalyaspor1. Ligvnot checked for this forecast
2 matches
2 matches
6 matches
- FTFortuna Sittard1–5AjaxEredivisiev3 notesexpect 1–2 (1.1–1.7 goals)Yes56% likely · pays 1.57Both sides scored in 6 of the last 9.
- FTIraklis 19081–1AtromitosSuper League 1v1 notenot checked for this forecast
- FTAl Khaleej Saihat1–1Al-NassrPro Leaguev1 notenot checked for this forecast
- FTDunkerque2–1Saint EtienneLigue 2v1 notenot checked for this forecast
- FTExcelsior Virton3–0KRC Genk IIChallenger Pro Leaguev1 notenot checked for this forecast
- FTAl Shabab0–0Al-FayhaPro Leaguev1 notenot checked for this forecast
1 match
1 match
7 matches
- FTLorient2–2ToulouseLigue 1vexpect 2–1 (1.4–1.3 goals)Yes56% likely · pays 1.67
- FTAuxerre1–0NiceLigue 1vexpect 1–0 (1.2–1.2 goals)Yes53% likely · pays 1.70
- FTAtalanta1–2CagliariSerie Avexpect 2–1 (2.1–0.9 goals)Yes54% likely · pays 1.91
- FTParis FC0–0LyonLigue 1v1 noteexpect 1–2 (1.5–1.6 goals)Yes59% likely · pays 1.50Both sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTLe Havre0–0AngersLigue 1v2 notesexpect 1–0 (1.4–0.9 goals)Yes51% likely · pays 1.73Both sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTOH Leuven1–1Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro Leaguev2 notesexpect 1–2 (1.4–1.5 goals)Yes58% likely · pays 1.53
- FTUnion St. Gilloise5–0Lommel UnitedJupiler Pro Leaguev4 notesexpect 1–0 (1.6–0.5 goals)No55% likely · pays 1.83Both sides scored in 3 of the last 10.
6 matches
- FTSunderland0–2ArsenalPremier Leaguev1 noteexpect 0–1 (0.6–1.7 goals)No52% likely · pays 1.75
- FTReal Madrid4–1Rayo VallecanoLa Ligav1 noteexpect 2–1 (2.2–0.8 goals)Yes53% likely · pays 1.95Both sides scored in 8 of the last 10.
- FTAtletico-MG3–1FluminenseSerie Av1 noteexpect 1–0 (1.2–1.0 goals)Yes51% likely · pays 1.95Both sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTGremio1–2Vasco DA GamaSerie Av2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.8–1.2 goals)Yes57% likely · pays 1.80
- FTCambuur3–0NEC NijmegenEredivisiev3 notesexpect 1–2 (0.9–2.3 goals)Yes56% likely · pays 1.50Both sides scored in 9 of the last 10.
- FTCordoba0–2AlmeriaSegunda Divisiónv1 notenot checked for this forecast
1 match
1 match
1 match
1 match
1 match
1 match
6 matches
- FTBotafogo1–1RB BragantinoSerie Av2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.8–0.9 goals)Yes53% likely · pays 1.67
- FTColumbus Crew0–1New York Red BullsMajor League Soccerv2 notesexpect 2–1 (2.0–1.2 goals)Yes58% likely · pays 1.40Both sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTDC United0–0Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccerv2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.5–1.2 goals)Yes56% likely · pays 1.55Both sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
- FTOrlando City SC3–0Toronto FCMajor League Soccerv3 notesexpect 2–1 (2.0–1.2 goals)Yes60% likely · pays 1.40Both sides scored in 9 of the last 10.
- FTFC Cincinnati3–3CharlotteMajor League Soccerv3 notesexpect 2–1 (1.9–1.4 goals)Yes60% likely · pays 1.36Both sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTInter Miami2–2Nashville SCMajor League Soccerv3 notesexpect 2–1 (2.2–1.4 goals)Yes63% likely · pays 1.36Both sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
Major League Soccer
What the marks mean, and what the plus does
+Adds a call to your slip. Pick as many as you like, across as many matches, and we will say what the combination is actually worth — including the correction for legs on the same match, which cannot simply be multiplied together.
How much we know about a match yet: confirmed lineups, reported injuries, a settled price, and a forecast we are willing to publish. Four filled means everything we look at has landed. It is not how likely a bet is to win, and a match we know a lot about can still be one to leave alone.
- model vs market — Our number and the market's are far apart. That is a reason to look closely, not a reason to be confident.
- congestion — A side here has played four or more matches in the last fortnight, so changes to the eleven are likely.
- few meetings — These two have played each other too few times for their record against each other to tell you much.
- wide range — Our own range around this forecast is wide. The number is our best estimate, but we are not confident in it.
Today’s bets
Today's 11 are fewer than the 146.6 that chance alone would throw up, so today carries no evidence of an edge. The list is below because our reasoning is worth seeing, not because we are telling you to act on it.
- Atalanta vCagliariAtalanta6 wins in their last 10 between them.We make it 65% against a price of 57%. Read the case →
- Bolton vCardiffBoltonWe make it 58% against a price of 37%. Read the case →
- Union St. Gilloise vLommel UnitedUnder 2.5We make it 57% against a price of 32%. Read the case →
- Borussia Dortmund vSC Paderborn 07Under 2.5Their last 10 matches averaged 2.3 goals.We make it 57% against a price of 29%. Read the case →
- Botafogo vRB BragantinoBotafogoWe make it 57% against a price of 41%. Read the case →
- Gremio vVasco DA GamaGremioWe make it 53% against a price of 34%. Read the case →
- Lazio vAC MilanOver 2.5We make it 52% against a price of 43%. Read the case →
- Chapecoense-sc vInternacionalInternacionalWe make it 52% against a price of 44%. Read the case →
- Osasuna vEspanyolOver 2.5We make it 51% against a price of 42%. Read the case →
- Necaxa vPueblaNoWe make it 51% against a price of 40%. Read the case →
- Palmeiras vSao PauloYesBoth sides scored in 6 of their last 10.We make it 51% against a price of 44%. Read the case →
11 recommended, from 419 priced outcomes weighed · 146.6 expected from chance alone, if we held no edge at all
We recommend; we never guarantee.
What these percentages mean, and what has and has not been tested
Read the count against the number beside it, never on its own. The second figure is exact rather than an estimate: centred on the price, the fraction of outcomes clearing a bar of 65% is exactly 35%.
The percentage on each row is how sure we are that our number is above the price — not the chance the bet wins, and not a claim about profit. A 78% there and a 50% forecast means we think the outcome happens about half the time and we are fairly confident the market has it too low.
How these have actually turned out is on the accuracy page, per market.
How 's forecasts turned out
6 of 8 calls landed — the outcome we rated most likely came in.
- West Ham 6–0 Wrexhamour call landedwe called the home win 69%
- Sevilla 1–0 Valenciaour call landedwe called the home win 40%
- KV Mechelen 0–1 Anderlechtour call landedwe called the away win 42%
- Rennes 1–0 Marseilleour call landedwe called the home win 41%
- Venezia 2–4 Fiorentinaour call landedwe called the away win 52%
- Union Berlin 1–3 FC Schalke 04our call did not landwe called the home win 57%
What we called, next to what happened — not a win or a miss. A 30% call landing is a surprise, a 60% call missing is not a failure; whether the probabilities are any good is a question about hundreds at once, answered on accuracy.