Matchday Briefing
What we think will happen in every match today, with how sure we are — and how often we have been right.
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Today's matches
1 match
Serie A1 match
Liga Profesional Argentina5 matches
- FTHouston Dynamo2–2FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccerv2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.8–1.4 goals)Yes60% likely · pays 1.50
- FTFC Dallas0–0AustinMajor League Soccerv3 notesexpect 2–1 (2.0–1.0 goals)Yes56% likely · pays 1.57Both sides scored in 9 of the last 10.
- FTSporting Kansas City3–4Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccerv3 notesexpect 1–2 (1.3–2.0 goals)Yes60% likely · pays 1.50Both sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTMinnesota United FC2–3Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccerv3 notesexpect 2–1 (1.7–1.3 goals)Yes58% likely · pays 1.47Both sides scored in 9 of the last 10.
- FTSt. Louis City3–1Toronto FCMajor League Soccerv3 notesexpect 2–1 (1.8–1.0 goals)Yes56% likely · pays 1.50Both sides scored in 9 of the last 10.
Major League Soccer
1 match
Liga MX3 matches
- FTNashville SC3–0Chicago FireMajor League Soccerv2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.9–1.1 goals)Yes56% likely · pays 1.53Both sides scored in 8 of the last 10.
- FTReal Salt Lake0–3Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccerv3 notesexpect 1–2 (1.3–1.7 goals)Yes57% likely · pays 1.53
- FTColorado Rapids3–3Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccerv3 notesexpect 1–2 (1.4–1.4 goals)Yes56% likely · pays 1.62
1 match
1 match
2 matches
Ekstraklasa
Eredivisie1 match
Serie A2 matches
Championship
Premiership4 matches
- FTAntwerp0–2Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro Leaguev1 noteexpect 0–1 (0.9–1.5 goals)Yes51% likely · pays 1.70
- FTHannover 962–1Vfl Bochum2. Bundesligav1 noteexpect 2–1 (1.6–1.1 goals)Yes56% likely · pays 1.47
- FTArminia Bielefeld2–2FC Heidenheim2. Bundesligav2 notesexpect 1–2 (1.4–1.6 goals)Yes60% likelyBoth sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
- FTEnergie Cottbus1–1FC St. Pauli2. Bundesligav3 notesexpect 1–0 (1.4–0.9 goals)Yes51% likelyBoth sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
Jupiler Pro League
2. Bundesliga
8 matches
- FTGetafe1–0MalagaLa Ligav2 notesexpect 1–0 (1.2–0.7 goals)No54% likely · pays 1.67Both sides scored in 5 of the last 10.
- FTSonderjyske4–2Randers FCSuperligav1 noteexpect 2–1 (1.4–1.3 goals)Yes56% likelyBoth sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTBrondby0–1FC CopenhagenSuperligav1 noteexpect 1–2 (1.3–1.5 goals)Yes57% likely
- FTSabadell3–1OviedoSegunda Divisiónv2 notesexpect 1–0 (1.2–1.0 goals)Yes51% likely
- FTFC Vaduz1–2FC ThunSuper Leaguev3 notesexpect 1–2 (1.6–2.0 goals)Yes63% likelyBoth sides scored in 8 of the last 10.
- FTDjurgardens IF1–2IF ElfsborgAllsvenskanv1 notenot checked for this forecast
- FTKalmar FF0–5BK HackenAllsvenskanv2 notesnot checked for this forecast
- FTHalmstad2–1AIK StockholmAllsvenskanv3 notesnot checked for this forecast
La Liga
Superliga
Segunda División
Super League
Allsvenskan
6 matches
- FTTwente3–2PSV EindhovenEredivisiev2 notesexpect 1–2 (1.7–1.9 goals)Yes63% likely · pays 1.28Both sides scored in 8 of the last 10.
- FTNorwich3–4BoltonChampionshipv3 notesexpect 2–1 (1.8–1.2 goals)Yes58% likely · pays 1.67Both sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTAZ Alkmaar1–0TelstarEredivisiev4 notesexpect 2–1 (2.2–1.0 goals)Yes57% likely · pays 1.62Both sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTRied4–1Wolfsberger ACBundesligav1 noteexpect 1–2 (1.2–1.5 goals)Yes56% likelyBoth sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
- FTTSV Hartberg3–3Lask LinzBundesligav1 noteexpect 1–2 (1.2–1.5 goals)Yes56% likelyBoth sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTValerenga1–1FredrikstadEliteserienv1 notenot checked for this forecast
Bundesliga
Eliteserien1 match
8 matches
- FTAuxerre2–1Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1vexpect 2–1 (1.4–1.2 goals)Yes54% likelyBoth sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
- FTLeeds0–0Crystal PalacePremier Leaguev1 noteexpect 2–1 (1.5–1.2 goals)Yes56% likelyBoth sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
- FTBournemouth0–1LiverpoolPremier Leaguev1 noteexpect 2–1 (1.6–1.6 goals)Yes60% likelyBoth sides scored in 8 of the last 10.
- FTManchester City5–3SunderlandPremier Leaguev1 noteexpect 2–1 (2.3–0.7 goals)Yes51% likelyBoth sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTParma2–1GenoaSerie Av1 noteexpect 0–1 (1.0–1.1 goals)No50% likelyBoth sides scored in 4 of the last 10.
- FTFrosinone2–0ComoSerie Av2 notesexpect 1–2 (1.0–1.6 goals)Yes53% likelyBoth sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
- FTHellas Verona2–1Vicenza VirtusSerie Bv2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.7–0.8 goals)Yes51% likelyBoth sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
- FTArezzo1–4SudtirolSerie Bv2 notesexpect 1–0 (1.5–0.9 goals)Yes51% likely
Ligue 1
Premier League
Serie B
1 match
Bundesliga9 matches
- FTFenerbahçe8–0EyüpsporSüper Ligv2 notesexpect 2–1 (2.5–0.9 goals)Yes55% likely
- FTErzurumspor FK1–0SamsunsporSüper Ligv2 notesexpect 1–0 (1.5–0.9 goals)Yes52% likely
- FTSt. Truiden0–2KVC WesterloJupiler Pro Leaguev1 noteexpect 2–1 (1.9–1.3 goals)Yes60% likely
- FTGremio0–0PalmeirasSerie Av2 notesexpect 1–2 (1.1–1.5 goals)Yes56% likely
- FTLevadiakos0–1Olympiakos PiraeusSuper League 1v2 notesexpect 1–2 (0.8–1.8 goals)Yes52% likely
- FTManisa F.K.0–1İstanbulspor1. Ligv2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.7–1.3 goals)Yes60% likelyBoth sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
- FTPendikspor1–1Bodrum FK1. Ligv2 notesexpect 0–1 (1.0–1.1 goals)Yes51% likely
- FTLokeren-Temse1–1Excelsior VirtonChallenger Pro Leaguev2 notesexpect 1–0 (1.6–0.8 goals)Yes51% likely
- FTAC Horsens2–2AarhusSuperligav2 notesexpect 1–2 (0.9–1.7 goals)Yes52% likelyBoth sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
Süper Lig
Super League 1
1. Lig
Challenger Pro League
2 matches
6 matches
- FTVitória SC1–1MoreirensePrimeira Ligav1 noteexpect 1–0 (1.5–0.9 goals)Yes52% likely
- FTEstrela0–2Academico ViseuPrimeira Ligav2 notesexpect 1–2 (1.1–1.4 goals)Yes53% likelyBoth sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
- FTFC Basel 18931–3FC ST. GallenSuper Leaguev2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.6–1.3 goals)Yes58% likelyBoth sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
- FTLausanne0–4FC LuganoSuper Leaguev2 notesexpect 1–2 (1.2–1.5 goals)Yes56% likelyBoth sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTDegerfors IF0–1Hammarby FFAllsvenskanv1 notenot checked for this forecast
- FTMjallby AIF0–3GaisAllsvenskanv2 notesnot checked for this forecast
Primeira Liga
2 matches
Eerste Divisie5 matches
- FTRed Bull Salzburg3–0Sturm GrazBundesligav1 noteexpect 2–1 (1.6–1.2 goals)Yes56% likelyBoth sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
- FTVolos NFC1–2AEK Athens FCSuper League 1v2 notesexpect 1–2 (0.7–2.2 goals)Yes51% likelyBoth sides scored in 5 of the last 8.
- FTTromso3–2Ham-KamEliteserienv1 notenot checked for this forecast
- FTSandefjord3–0StartEliteserienv1 notenot checked for this forecast
- FTViking3–0LillestromEliteserienv1 notenot checked for this forecast
2 matches
3 matches
- FTFulham1–1Manchester UnitedPremier Leaguev1 noteexpect 1–2 (1.4–1.5 goals)Yes57% likely
- FTFC Schalke 040–0SV ElversbergBundesligav1 noteexpect 2–1 (1.5–1.4 goals)Yes58% likelyBoth sides scored in 8 of the last 10.
- FTJagiellonia1–3Legia WarszawaEkstraklasav1 noteexpect 2–1 (1.6–1.3 goals)Yes57% likelyBoth sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
3 matches
- FTJuventus2–0AtalantaSerie Av1 noteexpect 2–1 (1.5–1.1 goals)Yes53% likely · pays 1.91Both sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
- FTOFI2–2Asteras TripolisSuper League 1v2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.5–1.1 goals)Yes53% likely · pays 1.95
- FTViborg4–1FC NordsjaellandSuperligav1 noteexpect 1–2 (1.4–1.4 goals)Yes57% likely
6 matches
- FTVillarreal3–1LevanteLa Ligav1 noteexpect 2–1 (2.3–1.1 goals)Yes58% likely · pays 1.57Both sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTDeportivo La Coruna1–1Real BetisLa Ligav1 noteexpect 1–2 (1.2–1.5 goals)Yes56% likely · pays 1.65Both sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTClub Brugge KV3–0GenkJupiler Pro Leaguev1 noteexpect 2–1 (2.2–1.2 goals)Yes60% likely
- FTLas Palmas1–2BurgosSegunda Divisiónv1 noteexpect 1–0 (1.1–0.7 goals)No54% likelyBoth sides scored in 5 of the last 10.
- FTAlmeria2–0Celta de Vigo IISegunda Divisiónv2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.8–1.3 goals)Yes60% likely
- FTKalamata0–1PanathinaikosSuper League 1v3 notesexpect 0–1 (0.8–1.5 goals)Yes51% likelyBoth sides scored in 5 of the last 8.
6 matches
- FTSanta Clara0–0SC BragaPrimeira Ligav1 noteexpect 0–1 (0.9–1.5 goals)Yes52% likely
- FTEstoril1–2Casa PiaPrimeira Ligav1 noteexpect 2–1 (1.7–1.1 goals)Yes55% likely
- FTGöztepe2–2RizesporSüper Ligv2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.5–1.1 goals)Yes53% likely
- FTAmed3–2BeşiktaşSüper Ligv2 notesexpect 1–2 (1.3–1.4 goals)Yes56% likely
- FTAntalyaspor3–0Vanspor FK1. Ligv2 notesexpect 1–0 (1.4–1.0 goals)Yes52% likelyBoth sides scored in 8 of the last 10.
- FTMardin 19690–1Kayserispor1. Ligv2 notesexpect 1–0 (1.2–0.8 goals)No53% likelyBoth sides scored in 4 of the last 10.
3 matches
2 matches
1 match
1 match
1 match
2 matches
4 matches
- FTValencia2–3Real SociedadLa Ligav1 noteexpect 2–1 (1.5–1.2 goals)Yes56% likely · pays 1.73
- FTCorinthians1–3FluminenseSerie Av1 noteexpect 1–0 (1.2–0.9 goals)Yes51% likelyBoth sides scored in 8 of the last 10.
- FTVitoria1–3CruzeiroSerie Av1 noteexpect 0–1 (1.0–1.1 goals)Yes51% likelyBoth sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
- FTLeganes3–2Granada CFSegunda Divisiónv1 noteexpect 1–0 (1.3–1.0 goals)Yes52% likely
1 match
2 matches
1 match
1 match
1 match
1 match
What the marks mean, and what the plus does
+Adds a call to your slip. Pick as many as you like, across as many matches, and we will say what the combination is actually worth — including the correction for legs on the same match, which cannot simply be multiplied together.
How much we know about a match yet: confirmed lineups, reported injuries, a settled price, and a forecast we are willing to publish. Four filled means everything we look at has landed. It is not how likely a bet is to win, and a match we know a lot about can still be one to leave alone.
- lineups pending — The confirmed team sheets are not out yet, so an injury or a rested first-choice player could still change this match.
- model vs market — Our number and the market's are far apart. That is a reason to look closely, not a reason to be confident.
- congestion — A side here has played four or more matches in the last fortnight, so changes to the eleven are likely.
- few meetings — These two have played each other too few times for their record against each other to tell you much.
- wide range — Our own range around this forecast is wide. The number is our best estimate, but we are not confident in it.
Today’s bets
Today's 3 are fewer than the 93.1 that chance alone would throw up, so today carries no evidence of an edge. The list is below because our reasoning is worth seeing, not because we are telling you to act on it.
- Antwerp vUnion St. GilloiseUnder 2.5We make it 51% against a price of 39%. Read the case →
- OFI vAsteras TripolisOver 2.5We make it 51% against a price of 41%. Read the case →
- Piast Gliwice vPogon SzczecinUnder 2.5We make it 51% against a price of 43%. Read the case →
3 recommended, from 266 priced outcomes weighed · 93.1 expected from chance alone, if we held no edge at all
We recommend; we never guarantee.
What these percentages mean, and what has and has not been tested
Read the count against the number beside it, never on its own. The second figure is exact rather than an estimate: centred on the price, the fraction of outcomes clearing a bar of 65% is exactly 35%.
The percentage on each row is how sure we are that our number is above the price — not the chance the bet wins, and not a claim about profit. A 78% there and a 50% forecast means we think the outcome happens about half the time and we are fairly confident the market has it too low.
How these have actually turned out is on the accuracy page, per market.
How 's forecasts turned out
50 of 128 calls landed — the outcome we rated most likely came in.
- Esenler Erokspor 0–2 Fatih Karagümrükour call did not landwe called the home win 56%
- Batman Petrolspor 1–2 Bursasporour call did not landwe called the home win 47%
- Sarıyer 2–1 Bolusporour call landedwe called the home win 44%
- Keçiörengücü 1–1 Sivassporour call did not landwe called the home win 52%
- DC United 1–2 Charlotteour call landedwe called the away win 38%
- CF Montreal 0–2 Columbus Crewour call landedwe called the away win 42%
What we called, next to what happened — not a win or a miss. A 30% call landing is a surprise, a 60% call missing is not a failure; whether the probabilities are any good is a question about hundreds at once, answered on accuracy.