Matchday Briefing
What we think will happen in every match today, with how sure we are — and how often we have been right.
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Today's matches
1 match
Liga Profesional Argentina1 match
Liga MX1 match
3 matches
- FT1. FC Kaiserslautern1–0Eintracht Braunschweig2. Bundesligav1 noteexpect 2–1 (1.9–1.1 goals)Yes56% likely · pays 1.50
- FTKarlsruher SC0–11. FC Nürnberg2. Bundesligav2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.9–1.4 goals)Yes60% likely · pays 1.33Both sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
- FTHolstein Kiel1–1VfL Osnabrück2. Bundesligav3 notesexpect 2–1 (2.3–1.0 goals)Yes56% likely · pays 1.53Both sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
2. Bundesliga
8 matches
- FTTottenham2–3Aston VillaPremier Leaguev2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.5–1.4 goals)Yes57% likely · pays 1.62
- FTBurton Albion2–2Mansfield TownLeague Onev2 notesexpect 0–1 (1.1–1.3 goals)Yes52% likely · pays 1.70Both sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTCardiff3–1CharltonChampionshipv3 notesexpect 2–1 (1.6–1.1 goals)Yes54% likely · pays 1.62
- FTStoke City2–1Sheffield UtdChampionshipv2 notesexpect 1–2 (1.2–1.4 goals)Yes56% likely · pays 1.70Both sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
- FTRochdale2–0OldhamLeague Twov2 notesexpect 0–1 (1.1–1.2 goals)Yes52% likely
- FTWalsall2–0Port ValeLeague Twov2 notesexpect 1–0 (1.2–1.0 goals)Yes51% likely
- FTBarnsley1–1LeicesterLeague Onev2 notesexpect 1–2 (1.5–1.6 goals)Yes60% likely · pays 1.44
- FTMillwall2–2West HamChampionshipv3 notesexpect 1–2 (1.1–1.6 goals)Yes53% likely · pays 1.57Both sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
Premier League
League One
Championship
League Two
4 matches
- FTOsasuna1–1Rayo VallecanoLa Ligav1 noteexpect 1–0 (1.3–1.0 goals)Yes52% likely · pays 1.80Both sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTReal Sociedad II0–1MallorcaSegunda Divisiónv1 noteexpect 0–1 (1.1–1.3 goals)Yes53% likely
- FTGuingamp1–3RED Star FC 93Ligue 2v2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.4–1.2 goals)Yes53% likelyBoth sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTBoulogne1–2NantesLigue 2v2 notesexpect 0–1 (0.8–1.4 goals)Yes51% likely
La Liga
Segunda División
Ligue 2
1 match
Ekstraklasa7 matches
- FTUdinese0–1CagliariSerie Avexpect 1–0 (1.4–1.0 goals)Yes53% likely · pays 1.80Both sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTBologna1–1TorinoSerie Avexpect 1–0 (1.4–1.0 goals)Yes52% likelyBoth sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTCremonese0–0Virtus EntellaSerie Bv2 notesexpect 1–0 (1.6–0.8 goals)Yes51% likelyBoth sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTPalermo2–1PadovaSerie Bv2 notesexpect 1–0 (1.7–0.8 goals)Yes51% likelyBoth sides scored in 5 of the last 8.
- FTCarrarese0–1BeneventoSerie Bv2 notesexpect 1–0 (1.2–1.2 goals)Yes52% likelyBoth sides scored in 5 of the last 8.
- FTIF Brommapojkarna0–1IFK GoteborgAllsvenskanv1 notenot checked for this forecast
- FTVasteras SK FK2–0Malmo FFAllsvenskanv1 notenot checked for this forecast
Serie A
Serie B
Allsvenskan
4 matches
- FTWerder Bremen3–2FC AugsburgBundesligavexpect 2–1 (1.7–1.2 goals)Yes57% likely · pays 1.39Both sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTBorussia Mönchengladbach3–4FSV Mainz 05Bundesligav1 noteexpect 2–1 (1.5–1.4 goals)Yes58% likely · pays 1.44
- FTEintracht Frankfurt2–2SC FreiburgBundesligavexpect 2–1 (1.7–1.3 goals)Yes59% likelyBoth sides scored in 8 of the last 10.
- FTHamburger SV2–11. FC KölnBundesligav1 noteexpect 2–1 (1.7–1.3 goals)Yes58% likelyBoth sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
Bundesliga
44 matches
- FTNewcastle2–1Hull CityPremier Leaguev2 notesexpect 2–1 (2.9–0.8 goals)Yes56% likely · pays 1.70
- FTEverton1–0IpswichPremier Leaguev2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.8–1.0 goals)Yes56% likely · pays 1.68Both sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTBrighton3–0ArsenalPremier Leaguev1 noteexpect 0–1 (1.0–1.4 goals)Yes52% likely
- FTPortsmouth2–2BlackburnChampionshipv1 noteexpect 1–0 (1.2–1.1 goals)Yes52% likelyBoth sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTBurnley1–1DerbyChampionshipv2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.5–1.0 goals)Yes53% likelyBoth sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTBirmingham2–2MiddlesbroughChampionshipv2 notesexpect 0–1 (1.2–1.2 goals)Yes52% likelyBoth sides scored in 9 of the last 10.
- FTQPR2–2PrestonChampionshipv2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.5–1.2 goals)Yes56% likelyBoth sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTLincoln1–2SwanseaChampionshipv2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.6–1.0 goals)Yes53% likely
- FTWrexham2–1SouthamptonChampionshipv3 notesexpect 1–2 (1.4–1.6 goals)Yes60% likelyBoth sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
- FTOH Leuven2–0RAAL La LouvièreJupiler Pro Leaguev1 noteexpect 1–0 (1.3–1.1 goals)Yes52% likely
- FTNorthampton0–1RotherhamLeague Twov1 noteexpect 1–0 (1.2–1.0 goals)Yes51% likelyBoth sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTSheffield Wednesday0–0Stockport CountyLeague Onev1 noteexpect 1–2 (1.1–1.5 goals)Yes56% likelyBoth sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTLeyton Orient1–0StevenageLeague Onev1 noteexpect 1–0 (1.2–0.9 goals)No50% likely
- FTKRC Genk II2–2Seraing UnitedChallenger Pro Leaguev1 noteexpect 2–1 (1.4–1.4 goals)Yes56% likelyBoth sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTÇorum FK1–2AlanyasporSüper Ligv2 notesexpect 1–0 (1.4–1.0 goals)Yes52% likelyBoth sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTKocaelispor2–0Gaziantep FKSüper Ligv2 notesexpect 1–0 (1.3–1.0 goals)Yes52% likely
- FTHibernian1–1AberdeenPremiershipv2 notesexpect 1–0 (1.6–0.7 goals)No50% likelyBoth sides scored in 4 of the last 10.
- FTST Mirren0–3Dundee UtdPremiershipv2 notesexpect 1–0 (1.0–0.8 goals)No55% likelyBoth sides scored in 3 of the last 10.
- FTDundee2–1MotherwellPremiershipv2 notesexpect 1–2 (1.1–1.5 goals)Yes53% likely
- FTST Johnstone1–1FalkirkPremiershipv2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.3–1.2 goals)Yes53% likelyBoth sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
- FTKeçiörengücü1–1Sivasspor1. Ligv2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.6–1.0 goals)Yes53% likelyBoth sides scored in 8 of the last 10.
- FTSarıyer2–1Boluspor1. Ligv2 notesexpect 1–0 (1.3–1.0 goals)Yes52% likely
- FTChesterfield2–0YorkLeague Twov2 notesexpect 0–1 (1.1–1.3 goals)Yes53% likelyBoth sides scored in 8 of the last 10.
- FTGillingham3–0Bristol RoversLeague Twov2 notesexpect 0–1 (1.2–1.2 goals)Yes53% likely
- FTAccrington ST0–0Newport CountyLeague Twov2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.4–1.1 goals)Yes53% likelyBoth sides scored in 8 of the last 10.
- FTColchester1–1CheltenhamLeague Twov2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.6–0.9 goals)Yes53% likelyBoth sides scored in 8 of the last 10.
- FTCrewe1–1ShrewsburyLeague Twov2 notesexpect 1–0 (1.5–0.9 goals)Yes51% likely
- FTExeter City0–0TranmereLeague Twov2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.8–0.9 goals)Yes52% likely
- FTGrimsby2–0Crawley TownLeague Twov2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.8–1.0 goals)Yes54% likelyBoth sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
- FTBarnet3–1Fleetwood TownLeague Twov2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.6–1.0 goals)Yes53% likelyBoth sides scored in 8 of the last 10.
- FTSalford City1–0Swindon TownLeague Twov2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.6–1.3 goals)Yes56% likely
- FTReading2–0Notts CountyLeague Onev2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.7–1.2 goals)Yes56% likelyBoth sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
- FTWigan0–1WycombeLeague Onev2 notesexpect 0–1 (1.1–1.1 goals)Yes51% likelyBoth sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTOxford United1–1Cambridge UnitedLeague Onev2 notesexpect 1–0 (1.4–0.8 goals)Yes50% likelyBoth sides scored in 8 of the last 10.
- FTPeterborough0–2DoncasterLeague Onev2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.8–1.2 goals)Yes58% likelyBoth sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTBlackpool2–4PlymouthLeague Onev2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.5–1.4 goals)Yes58% likelyBoth sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTLuton0–1BradfordLeague Onev2 notesexpect 1–0 (1.5–0.9 goals)Yes52% likely
- FTBromley2–1HuddersfieldLeague Onev2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.3–1.3 goals)Yes56% likelyBoth sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
- FTLivingston2–2Inverness CTChampionshipv2 notesexpect 1–0 (1.3–0.9 goals)No50% likelyBoth sides scored in 4 of the last 10.
- FTPartick0–0Raith RoversChampionshipv2 notesexpect 1–0 (1.4–0.9 goals)Yes51% likely
- FTMorton0–1DunfermlineChampionshipv2 notesexpect 0–1 (1.0–1.2 goals)Yes51% likelyBoth sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTStenhousemuir1–0ArbroathChampionshipv2 notesexpect 1–0 (1.2–0.8 goals)No51% likelyBoth sides scored in 3 of the last 10.
- FTSporting Hasselt0–1Beerschot VAChallenger Pro Leaguev2 notesexpect 1–0 (1.2–0.9 goals)No50% likelyBoth sides scored in 3 of the last 10.
- FTKristiansund BK1–3RosenborgEliteserienv1 notenot checked for this forecast
Jupiler Pro League
Challenger Pro League
Süper Lig
Premiership
1. Lig
Championship
Eliteserien2 matches
4 matches
- FTADO Den Haag1–1CambuurEredivisiev2 notesexpect 2–1 (2.0–1.1 goals)Yes56% likelyBoth sides scored in 8 of the last 10.
- FTNacional0–4FamalicaoPrimeira Ligav2 notesexpect 0–1 (1.0–1.3 goals)Yes52% likely
- FTGIL Vicente1–1MaritimoPrimeira Ligav2 notesexpect 1–0 (1.6–0.9 goals)Yes52% likely
- FTVitesse3–1Jong PSV U21Eerste Divisiev4 notesexpect 2–1 (2.2–1.4 goals)Yes61% likelyBoth sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
Eredivisie
Primeira Liga
Eerste Divisie1 match
Bundesliga2 matches
Ligue 1
2 matches
7 matches
- FTAS Roma2–2InterSerie Avexpect 1–2 (1.2–1.6 goals)Yes56% likely · pays 1.53
- FTBSC Young Boys3–2Servette FCSuper Leaguev3 notesexpect 2–1 (2.2–1.4 goals)Yes61% likely · pays 1.44Both sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
- FTFC Luzern5–1GrasshoppersSuper Leaguev3 notesexpect 2–1 (2.2–1.2 goals)Yes60% likely · pays 1.36Both sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
- FTOdense1–1FC MidtjyllandSuperligav1 noteexpect 1–2 (1.2–2.2 goals)Yes60% likelyBoth sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
- FTFC Sion1–1FC ZurichSuper Leaguev3 notesexpect 2–1 (1.8–1.0 goals)Yes56% likelyBoth sides scored in 9 of the last 10.
- FTAtromitos1–2KifisiaSuper League 1v3 notesexpect 2–1 (1.6–1.0 goals)Yes53% likelyBoth sides scored in 5 of the last 8.
- FTMolde1–2AalesundEliteserienv1 notenot checked for this forecast
Super League
Superliga
Super League 1
1 match
6 matches
- FTNottingham Forest0–1CoventryPremier Leaguev2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.9–1.1 goals)Yes56% likely · pays 1.78
- FTVfB Stuttgart0–1Borussia DortmundBundesligavexpect 1–2 (1.7–1.7 goals)Yes63% likelyBoth sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
- FTCelta Vigo5–0Racing SantanderLa Ligav2 notesexpect 2–1 (2.2–1.3 goals)Yes60% likelyBoth sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
- FTCastellón5–0TenerifeSegunda Divisiónv2 notesexpect 1–0 (1.6–0.9 goals)Yes52% likely
- FTEldense1–2EibarSegunda Divisiónv2 notesexpect 0–1 (1.0–1.2 goals)Yes51% likely
- FTAris Thessalonikis0–0Iraklis 1908Super League 1v2 notesexpect 1–0 (1.4–0.8 goals)No51% likelyBoth sides scored in 4 of the last 8.
2 matches
5 matches
- FTAlverca1–0Rio AvePrimeira Ligav1 noteexpect 1–0 (1.5–1.0 goals)Yes52% likelyBoth sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTBaşakşehir4–0Gençlerbirliği S.K.Süper Ligv2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.7–0.8 goals)Yes51% likelyBoth sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTTrabzonspor4–0GalatasaraySüper Ligv2 notesexpect 1–2 (1.4–1.7 goals)Yes60% likelyBoth sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTBatman Petrolspor1–2Bursaspor1. Ligv2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.5–1.1 goals)Yes56% likelyBoth sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
- FTEsenler Erokspor0–2Fatih Karagümrük1. Ligv2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.7–0.9 goals)Yes52% likelyBoth sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
4 matches
- FTGrazer AK2–2Austria ViennaBundesligav1 noteexpect 1–2 (1.2–1.5 goals)Yes55% likely · pays 1.80
- FTAscoli3–1AvellinoSerie Bv2 notesexpect 1–0 (1.4–0.9 goals)Yes51% likely · pays 1.83
- FTGimnasia L.P.2–2BanfieldLiga Profesional Argentinav1 notenot checked for this forecast
- FTGimnasia M.0–0Deportivo RiestraLiga Profesional Argentinav1 notenot checked for this forecast
3 matches
- FTAS Eupen3–1LiègeChallenger Pro Leaguev2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.3–1.2 goals)Yes54% likely · pays 1.67Both sides scored in 7 of the last 9.
- FTMetz2–2Saint EtienneLigue 2v3 notesexpect 2–1 (1.5–1.3 goals)Yes56% likely · pays 1.67Both sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
- FTAjax2–2ExcelsiorEredivisiev4 notesexpect 2–1 (2.2–1.0 goals)Yes56% likely · pays 1.67Both sides scored in 8 of the last 10.
1 match
1 match
7 matches
- FTVenezia0–2LazioSerie Av1 noteexpect 1–2 (1.2–1.3 goals)Yes53% likely · pays 1.62
- FTToulouse3–2Le HavreLigue 1vexpect 2–1 (1.6–0.9 goals)Yes52% likely
- FTAngers2–0Estac TroyesLigue 1v1 noteexpect 1–0 (1.2–1.1 goals)Yes52% likelyBoth sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTLyon4–0RennesLigue 1v1 noteexpect 2–1 (1.9–1.5 goals)Yes61% likelyBoth sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTLommel United0–0KV MechelenJupiler Pro Leaguev1 noteexpect 1–2 (1.3–1.5 goals)Yes57% likely
- FTAnderlecht3–0Zulte WaregemJupiler Pro Leaguev1 noteexpect 2–1 (2.0–1.3 goals)Yes60% likely
- FTLe Mans2–1LorientLigue 1v2 notesexpect 1–2 (1.2–1.3 goals)Yes53% likelyBoth sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
4 matches
- FTSevilla1–3BarcelonaLa Ligav1 noteexpect 1–2 (1.1–2.1 goals)Yes58% likely
- FTAtletico-MG1–1Chapecoense-scSerie Av1 noteexpect 2–1 (2.1–0.7 goals)Yes51% likelyBoth sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTCadiz1–2GironaSegunda Divisiónv1 noteexpect 0–1 (1.0–1.4 goals)Yes53% likelyBoth sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
- FTWillem II0–1Fortuna SittardEredivisiev3 notesexpect 1–0 (1.3–1.1 goals)Yes53% likelyBoth sides scored in 8 of the last 10.
Serie A
1 match
1 match
1 match
1 match
1 match
2 matches
5 matches
- FTVasco DA Gama5–0CoritibaSerie Av2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.9–1.1 goals)Yesour bet56% likely · pays 2.00Both sides scored in 8 of the last 10.
- FTSan Jose Earthquakes2–2Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccerv3 notesexpect 1–2 (1.5–1.7 goals)Yes60% likely · pays 1.44Both sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTDC United1–2CharlotteMajor League Soccerv2 notesexpect 1–2 (1.4–1.4 goals)Yes56% likely
- FTNew England Revolution4–2Orlando City SCMajor League Soccerv3 notesexpect 2–1 (1.9–1.5 goals)Yes61% likelyBoth sides scored in 8 of the last 10.
- FTCF Montreal0–2Columbus CrewMajor League Soccerv3 notesexpect 1–2 (1.4–1.6 goals)Yes60% likelyBoth sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
Major League Soccer
What the marks mean, and what the plus does
+Adds a call to your slip. Pick as many as you like, across as many matches, and we will say what the combination is actually worth — including the correction for legs on the same match, which cannot simply be multiplied together.
How much we know about a match yet: confirmed lineups, reported injuries, a settled price, and a forecast we are willing to publish. Four filled means everything we look at has landed. It is not how likely a bet is to win, and a match we know a lot about can still be one to leave alone.
- lineups pending — The confirmed team sheets are not out yet, so an injury or a rested first-choice player could still change this match.
- model vs market — Our number and the market's are far apart. That is a reason to look closely, not a reason to be confident.
- congestion — A side here has played four or more matches in the last fortnight, so changes to the eleven are likely.
- few meetings — These two have played each other too few times for their record against each other to tell you much.
- wide range — Our own range around this forecast is wide. The number is our best estimate, but we are not confident in it.
Today’s bets
Today's 7 are fewer than the 102.9 that chance alone would throw up, so today carries no evidence of an edge. The list is below because our reasoning is worth seeing, not because we are telling you to act on it.
- Newcastle vHull CityNewcastleWe make it 79% against a price of 60%. Read the case →
- Holstein Kiel vVfL OsnabrückHolstein KielWe make it 68% against a price of 55%. Read the case →
- Puebla vAtlante FCAtlante FCWe make it 57% against a price of 32%. Read the case →
- Vasco DA Gama vCoritibaYesBoth sides scored in 8 of their last 10.We make it 56% against a price of 48%. Read the case →
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vEintracht Braunschweig1. FC KaiserslauternWe make it 56% against a price of 48%. Read the case →
- Korona Kielce vRaków CzęstochowaUnder 2.5We make it 54% against a price of 46%. Read the case →
- Sporting CP vAroucaYesWe make it 52% against a price of 45%. Read the case →
7 recommended, from 294 priced outcomes weighed · 102.9 expected from chance alone, if we held no edge at all
We recommend; we never guarantee.
What these percentages mean, and what has and has not been tested
Read the count against the number beside it, never on its own. The second figure is exact rather than an estimate: centred on the price, the fraction of outcomes clearing a bar of 65% is exactly 35%.
The percentage on each row is how sure we are that our number is above the price — not the chance the bet wins, and not a claim about profit. A 78% there and a 50% forecast means we think the outcome happens about half the time and we are fairly confident the market has it too low.
How these have actually turned out is on the accuracy page, per market.
How 's forecasts turned out
16 of 37 calls landed — the outcome we rated most likely came in.
- Muğlaspor 2–2 Iğdır FKour call did not landwe called the away win 39%
- Bandırmaspor 0–1 Ümraniyesporour call did not landwe called the home win 50%
- New York City FC 0–1 New York Red Bullsour call did not landwe called the home win 57%
- Bristol City 1–0 Watfordour call landedwe called the home win 43%
- Espanyol 1–3 Elcheour call did not landwe called the home win 49%
- Brentford 3–0 Chelseaour call landedwe called the home win 43%
What we called, next to what happened — not a win or a miss. A 30% call landing is a surprise, a 60% call missing is not a failure; whether the probabilities are any good is a question about hundreds at once, answered on accuracy.